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Monday, August 13, 2012

Overpopulation Atheism

August 13, 2012

A couple of weeks ago when I visited Washington, DC, I came across an article by John Feehery in The Hill that used “Pascal’s Wager” in proving his point on the virtues of supporting environmental policy reforms to combat the global warming phenomenon. I think the very same line of thought can apply to the highly debated Reproductive Health (RH) or Responsible Parenthood (RP) Bill in the Philippines. The idea is that even if we grant the arguments of the anti-RH/anti-RP folks that population increase is not the cause of the problems plaguing the country’s citizenry especially it’s poor, but then again the Philippines is the only country many of its poor can live in. Can we really afford to ignore the relationship of poverty incidence with increasing population?

For those folks who are not familiar with “Pascal’s Wager”, according to Wikipedia it is an argument in apologetic philosophy which was devised by Blaise Pascal. It suggests that there’s more to be gained from wagering on the existence of God than from not believing in the existence of God, and that a rational person should live as though God exists, even though the truth of the matter cannot actually be known. In essence, if one were to put a bet on whether God exists or not, if the person wagers on the side that God does not exist and turns out to be wrong, he loses more as he will end up suffering eternal damnation. If the person wagers on the side that God exists and turns out to be wrong, then there’s nothing gained nor lost when it comes to the idea of eternal punishment for the idea ceases to exist with the non-existence of God. I do not wish to dwell on the arguments for or against the existence of God but I would like to discuss the principle of the Wager on the virtues of the RH/RP Bill.

In an article describing a 2009 study by the Asian Development Bank, it was stressed that even with a 0.47 percent poverty reduction rate between the periods 1990 and 2005, this reduction rate was slower than in Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, and Vietnam. According to Wikipedia, this dismal poverty reduction rate shows that the incidence of poverty has remained significantly high as compared to other countries. The study, as stated in the article, also shows that among the countries looked at, only in the Philippines did the overall number of poor people increased during that period. More to the point, less than one fifth of households with four members or less are poor and this percentage doubles to more than forty percent with six or more members in the family household. As the ADB indicated:

“Family size is (also) positively correlated with poverty incidence and vulnerability.”

Now I do realize that population growth alone cannot explain poverty nor can it be the only culprit to the societal problems plaguing the country. There certainly are factors such as bad governance, corruption, wealth and income inequality and weak economic growth. But there have been numerous studies that show how population growth may lead to or even aggravate the problem of poverty. Some of the studies are as follows:

In a RAND publication entitled: “The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change”, it states that as the number of people gets bigger, per capita production increases provided that the labor market can absorb the large number of workers. (My comment: There’s the rub. The current labor market in the Philippines cannot absorb the large number of workers. Sure the country can make policy changes such as Charter Change especially focused on allowing foreign ownership of businesses to spur foreign investment and the business climate. However, this could mean that the local businessmen would be at a disadvantage over their foreign counterparts. Some even say that this wouldviolate Philippine sovereignty and self-determination. So the challenge seems to lie on how we can have our cake and eat it too.)

A book by Alhburg et al. entitled: “The Impact of Population Growth on Well-being in Developing Countries” concludes that:

“…slowing population growth from high current levels, especially in poor agrarian societies facing pressure on land and resources, is advantageous to economic development, health, food availability, housing, poverty, the environment, and possibly education. It also concludes that while other economic and social policies may affect one or a few of these components of well-being more directly, few, if any, are likely to have the breadth of impact of family planning programmes.”

Emmanuel de Dios et al., in a book entitled: “Poverty, Growth and the Fiscal Crisis” argued that:

“High population growth has direct effects on poor families. Where unemployment is high, a larger population aggravates poverty simply because income per person becomes lower as population expands. This has more severe effects on the poor since their families are also larger. This implies that the share of incomes received by poor families is even more thinly distributed among them.”

Eastwood and Lipton from a publication at the Journal of Development Studies entitled: “Impact of Changes in Human Fertility on Poverty” has shown that cross-national regressions indicate that higher fertility increases poverty both by retarding economic growth and by skewing distribution against the poor.

Now I am sure there are a number of ways an anti-RH/anti-RP person can shoot holes in the arguments and facts presented in the studies and articles mentioned. Correlating population increase with poverty incidence may be nothing more than a case of statistical sophistry. However, while the number of unemployed and underemployed continues to be high (and increasing), while the overall number of poor people continue to increase, while the available resources and opportunities in the country continue to decline and tip the scale of the law of supply and demand towards a decreased consumer purchasing power, I do not think we can afford to ignore the evidence that poorly managed population growth is having an impact on the lives of millions of Filipino people, especially the poor.

[Photo courtesy Christian Post.]

The RH/RP Bill isn’t about abortion nor is it even about implementing a policy on how many children people shall have. It is about choices on family planning. People with financial means would always have the benefit of having the choice of and access to contraceptives if they do not wish to have children. People who are poor tend not to have the same benefit as it becomes a matter of affordability for them. From how I understand the intent of the RH/RP Bill is, the aim is to help provide this benefit for the poor. Given the current state of the Philippines when it comes to poverty, supporting the RH/RP Bill seems to be the safer bet at this time. There seems to be a more immediate risk in being an overpopulation atheist than to be the opposite.

10 Comments

  • Amy Lee says:

    You are absolutely right. The RH Bill is not just about abortion nor is it even about implementing a policy on how many children people shall have; it is NOT even about family planning and choices and all that jazz. It is about using the Php 13.7 BILLION pesos funding and pouring it into what is more critical at this moment the primary of which are flood-control management, disaster management. Of course there are hundreds of other things I can think of where we can put that money to good use but since we are a country in the path of a typhoons and we do get hit bad, year in and year out, and suffer the most damages worth billions, isn’t there more commonsense in spending on that than on contraception?

    My other points about the RH Bill : generate jobs thru allowing more foreign investments (as local investors obviously are doing jack shit to help) so we can have jobs, so people can be busy with a career more than making babies (there are lots of case studies about that the prime example of which is Singapore),and people can afford good education for their kids and good medical care without asking for govt doleouts.

    Enough with the mendicant mentality this govt is fostering with the RH Bill. Give more jobs, not condoms.

  • sitting pretty says:

    An anti-RH Bill stance is not equivalent to an anti-family planning one. It doesn’t make sense to give this government, that has so far mishandled everything else, more ways to muck things up via a bill that looks to be a move to take money from one group and give that to another.

  • BSJSNZ says:

    Hi… I have only recently found your website and I think it’s an amazing place to learn and share ideas that can benefit the Philippines as a whole by recognising realities. Congratulations to the host of this site.

    With regard to the article on the RH Bill etc… can I offer the following for consideration. You mention that people who are better off financially will have easy access to contraception etc and that’s so true. One thing that I believe is being overlooked was brought to light a few years ago when a member of local government (Mayor) said… “We have to find a way to get electricity into the mountains”. When I asked why I was somewhat surprised by his candid answer… “So the poor people living up there have something to do (watch TV… etc)… OTHER THAN MAKING BABIES”! And he’s right. I’ve travelled extensively through those mountains many times and often encountered families with upward of 15 to 20 children… many of whom grow up to around 14+ and begin to emulate their parents! This is NOT sustainable growth. The population growth in these areas is ‘EXPLOSIVE’ and creates all sort of additional environmental challenges such as ‘de-forestation’ to make space to grow food crops… which leads to erosion… flooding… and major calamities in the coastal regions. As long as there is such a major gap between ‘the haves’ and ‘the have-not’s’ we will never achieve true happiness. You have a wonderful country with many wonderful people… but the simple fact that not only is the Philippines all but financially bankrupt… it is also ‘morally bankrupt’ and will remain so until reality is faced and corruption addressed such that true equality in opportunity is offered to ALL Filipino! Thanks again for a great website. With much love and best wishes… B&R.

  • pussyfoot says:

    Unemployment is the major cause of poverty and in reality, when there’s no decent job alloted for the breadwinner of the family, chances are:
    * poor education for the kids
    * hungry stomach of the kids
    * lack of decent shelter for the kids
    And someday these kids will grow up IGNORANT. Being easily influenced by the negative aspects of the society.
    Let me put it this way, in free economies like Singapore, where population is more or less 5,000,000 s’poreans, poverty is low. Well it doesn’t mean that Singapore has small population in thar considering of its size. It is much smaller as compared to the Philippines. Despite that fact, Singapore is open to foreign trade allowing %100 foreign business ownership. Aside from that, despite its size, it managed to attain GDP growth of more or less $300 billion even higher than the Philippines, andd per capita of more or less $50,000 as opposed to the Philippines. These are facts, growing the economy without prior hesitation will benefit the majority. Unlike in the Philippines where job is limited, Filipinos are forced to look for alternatives overseas. If only economic liberization is just implemented here in the past then these problems might have been narrowed down.

    • joeld says:

      This is happening already, poor education leads to ignorance. If you chance upon the comments on yahoo phils, you will know what i mean.

      Unemployment has been a problem since I can remember. Cory made sure that she gave the people the illusion of having more jobs by contractualization. What the people didnt see is that it was not advantageous to the people but to her clan who owns big businesses. Gone are the days, when you finished school (kahit vocational lang) and got a job and you worked and progressed within that job, until the age of retirement. Nowadays, its good if you even had a 5 month-stint at SM or Jollibee, etc. Comes with this is the decline of our educational system. I mean teachers were proud and they were somebody to look up to. Students feared them and did their school work. Now what have we done..teachers are now looked down upon and they cant even do anything if the student or pupils dont listen or misbehave. And I wonder how my kids will grow up similar to mine with the situation now.

      The point is, everything has been downhill for the Philippines when more people started to believe in the L sign and the yellow color and “freedom and democracy”. Why cant it be like the way it used to be more than 2 decades ago. I felt safer and more secure then?

  • BenK says:

    So your argument is the RH Bill is worthy of a Pascal’s Wager that it may reduce population growth. That argument would be good enough, if it was not being made on behalf of a seriously-flawed piece of legislation riddled with ambiguity, that presents no objective measures of effectiveness, and puts large amounts of public funds at risk of corruption and political manipulation. And, grossly underestimates the amount of funding that is actually needed to carry out all its provisions.

    So, you’re creating another huge public funds drain, and the best anyone can say is it might help? That’s hardly good enough. If the problem is overpopulation, then that is the problem that needs to be addressed directly. Not with a statement of unfulfillable aspirations that tap-dances around the issue by blathering on about “choice”.

    • Sid says:

      They’re worried that if they went straight to the point and laid the bill out straight, they would incur the wrath of “authorities” such as the Catholic Church. Really, they’ve set themselves up in a situation where no one wins.

  • pussyfoot says:

    It is really hard to solve a problem when the problem itself already became complicated
    (as the saying goes, “Prevention is better than cure.”) especially when the public opinion is divided into thirds. Noone can guarantee the effectiveness of such a law especially that there are many other laws of the land that are not properly implemented like Benk say, it will just drain the fund allocated to it by means of what we are already overdosed of -corruption.

  • RONNIE says:

    This does not have to be a big deal.Teach kids in school how to use birth control devices.Handout condoms to poor people.It is not difficult.Spending millions of pesos to get people to stop making babies they can not care for is not necessary.Stopping un-planned/unwanted/under-cared for babies is what is needed and it should not cost all that much.Its seemingly more about an institution losing its grip and political grandstandig that is making this a big deal.
    OMG,WHAT IS NEXT???? MAKING DIVORCE LEGAL????OMG!!!!
    This country needs to come out of the dark ages,step into the light for a change,you will be welcomed!!!

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