The Philippine sycophant media has been bragging recently about the 72% growth in FDI – which in absolute terms is $850M. The basis of comparison was based on the Philippines year on year performance. Then like a blinding flash of the obvious – I had to ask and I wondered what the performance of our ASEAN neighbors were?
So what if the Philippines had 72% growth in FDI? On first glance it will appear impressive. But you have to dig deeper.
The Philippine economy takes 2 steps forward, say from Point B to Point C (FVR’s time, Arroyo’s Time).
Then it takes takes 3 steps backward from Point C to Point A (Erap’s time, BS Aquino’s time).
Then when the economy move from Point A back to Point B or halfway between B and C, the Philippines economic managers trumpet this impressive “growth”.
Meanwhile, during the same time period our neighbors have moved from Point A to Point B to Point C to Points D and E and beyond. Thus, their growth numbers may not be as impressive as 72% BUT in absolute terms – they are way past Points A, B, and C – the band where the Philippines merely oscillates.
So, when Aquino and the Philippines brag about the 72% growth – they are just talking about moving from Point A to Point B.
Flashbacks of BS Aquino’s campaign promises about meaningful statistics anyone?
For short – percentages can be misleading and will need to be cross referenced against the absolute figures. Singapore’s FDI data for Q1 2012 was not available so I will just stick to the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand.
When Vietnam talks about its 0.8% dip or when Indonesia mentions its 30% growth – it will appear that the Philippines outperformed Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. But, in absolute terms, nothing can be farther from the truth as shown in the chart and table below.
Philippines vs Vietnam
Vietnam’s 0.8% dip in FDI still resulted in $2.5B – an amount which is greater than the $850M of the Philippines – nearly THREE TIMES of the PHL.
Philippines vs Indonesia
Indonesia’s 30% growth still resulted in $5.6B – still greater than the $850M of BS Aquino’s Failippines – 6.6 times or nearly 7 times bigger than PHL FDI
Philippines vs Malaysia
Malaysia only had 15.38% increase in FDI.A total of RM7.5 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) for the first quarter of the year, or 2.3billion U.S. dollars – 2.7 times bigger than the FDI which went to PHL
Philippines vs Thailand
Here’s another one to blow BS Aquino’s socks off – Thailand’s FDI grew by 106% during the same period Q1 2012. Thailand’s BOI recorded 231.1 billion baht or $7.3B – that’s 8.67 or roughly NINE TIMES bigger than PHL’s $850M.
Philippines vs Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.
The total FDI that went to these five countries was $18.55B. Of the total, the Philippines recieved 5%, Vietnam – 13%; Indonesia – 30%; Malaysia – 12% – Thailand at 39%. The Philippines was the only country with single digit share of FDI – everyone else had double digits!
The 72% growth in FDI of the Philippines does not hold much water when during the same period, the country only captured 5% of the total FDI that went to Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.
This is not the time to be bragging. This is the time to identify and eliminate the investment policies which keeps the Philippines to a single digit share of total FDI that goes to ASEAN.
-oOo-
Data Sources:
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-04-22/news/sns-rt-indonesia-economyinvestment-update-1l3e8fk55z-20120422_1_foreign-direct-investment-rupiah-new-investment, Accessed 06/13/2012
http://thailand-business-news.com/investment/37796-investment-applications-in-thailand-grew-106-in-q1-2012-boi#.T9iQucFdiNc, Accessed 06/13/2012
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/26/vietnam-economy-fdi-idUSL3E8EQ1YW20120326, Accessed 06/13/2012
http://www.mmail.com.my/story/malaysia-attracts-rm75-bln-fdi-q1, Accessed 06/13/2012
BongV has written 387 stories on this site.
BongV is the webmaster of Antipinoy.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment